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Developer funds are tight, can house prices enter the downtrend channel?

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发表于 2018-10-3 22:17:01 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
[Original] Developer funds are tight, can house prices enter the down channel? ● (Not specifically marked, the article is original for Tan Haojun) Vanke feels "live" is difficult, Sunac said that cat winter, many large-scale development Enterprises are seeking transformation, plus the efforts to develop overseas financing for enterprises in the past two years, and a small number of small and medium-sized development enterprises are facing the risk of capital chain breakage. Individual developers even want to sue their own unlicensed sales violations for their own interests. problem

[Original] Developer funds are tight, can house prices enter the down channel?

(Not specifically marked, the article is original by Tan Haojun)

Vanke feels that it is difficult to "live". Sunac said that it is necessary to cat winter. Many large-scale development companies are seeking transformation. In addition, the development of overseas financing in the past two years has increased, and a small number of small and medium-sized development enterprises are facing a capital chain break. Risks, individual developers even do not hesitate to sue their own unlicensed sales violations for the benefit, all pointing to a problem, the developers are really tight.

So, will developers choose to cut prices? Has the era of falling house prices arrived?

Under normal circumstances, developers are tightly funded and the capital chain is beginning to tighten. They will go back and forth through the price cuts to ensure that the capital chain does not break. However, from the current actual situation, it seems that this phenomenon has not occurred. Many developers who seem to be nervous about the capital chain have not only failed to cut back the funds through price cuts, but have died in housing prices. The reason is that developers still get the secret support of the bank and don't have to worry about funding.


According to data released by the central bank, as of the end of June 2018, the national real estate loan balance was 35.78 trillion yuan, up 20.4% year-on-year. The growth rate was 0.1 percentage points higher than the end of the previous quarter; the first half increased by 3.54 trillion yuan, accounting for the same period. The loan increase was 39.2%, 0.1 percentage points higher than the end of the previous quarter. That is to say, despite the very strong regulation, the banks have repeatedly expressed their efforts to strengthen the regulation of the real estate market and strictly control the housing loans. However, this is not the case, but it is still trying to lend money to developers.

It is precisely because of this that the China Insurance Regulatory Commission has increased the supervision of bank credit behavior and penalized non-standard credit behavior. In August, a total of 418 bank-type fines were issued, with a fine of 139.39 million yuan and 265 people. Among them, the five major banks received 46 tickets and the joint-stock bank received 14 tickets. From the point of view of penalties, real estate loans have become the focus of supervision, and many banks have been punished for illegally flowing personal credit funds into the property market. For example, the Ningbo Branch of the Construction Bank was fined 200,000 yuan in August for personal loan funds flowing into the stock market and the housing market. In addition, Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank was fined 500,000 yuan for loan funds to invest in real estate.

It is precisely because of the implicit support of banks that it is difficult for development companies to form a tight capital chain. As everyone knows, as early as a few years ago, it was reported that the developer's capital chain was tense, and some of them were still broken. Some large-scale enterprises began to go abroad for financing. However, until now, the house price is still dead, and it is not willing to sell at a reduced price. Why, there is a bank backing.


The fact is that if the developer actively cuts the price, the risk will be much smaller. why? Developers will choose a more reasonable price cut to avoid a collapse in house prices. On the contrary, if the price cut caused by the market is difficult to say, then, at that time, it may lead to greater social contradictions and bring greater risks. After all, developers mostly have high debt ratios and are not resistant to risks. For example, Vanke, Country Garden, etc., the debt ratio is around 80%.

Therefore, we must not let developers have the idea that dead pigs are not afraid of boiling water. They must force them to actively cut prices, which will bring benefits to the residents and will not cause big market risks and financial risks. Price reduction is the most effective guarantee to ensure the stability of the real estate market. It is expected that house prices will shift from rising to stable next year, and the price of some cities will fall. In the end, how many cities have fallen, and how big the decline is. It depends on whether the bank will give the developers a secret fund support, and how strong the support is. An unavoidable fact is that the greater the secret support, the longer the developer's deadweight house price, but the risk of the bank, the secret support of 10%, and the risk increased by 30%. This is the cruelest fact and the thinking that banks must make. 34d1b3d6-a8a9-4653-87c6-ef4feaef12ce (1).JPEG


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